Upheaval, published in 2019, was written by Jared Diamond, a polymath who won the U.S. National Medal of Science, Japan’s International Cosmos Prize, the MacArthur Foundation Fellowship, the Pulitzer Prize for General Nonfiction, and was elected to the U.S. National Academy of Sciences. Upheaval, as its name suggests, is about upheavals. Diamond first defines what an upheaval is and then its potential scope, as seen in the three parts of the book. He first discusses individuals, then gives six examples of nations and their various upheavals, and finally talks about present and future upheavals and their potential effects on the human race.
To begin, in the prologue “Legacies of Cocoanut Grove,” Diamond begins his discussion on upheavals on a personal level. He acknowledges that most people “At one or more times during our lives … undergo a personal upheaval or crisis, which may or may not get resolved successfully through our making personal changes” (3). Diamond then moves on from the individual to the nation, and states that many nations go through periods of extreme turbulence which threaten its survival and stability, which “may or may not get resolved successfully through national changes” (3). Diamond begins with a personal example of a personal crisis, however extreme it is - Diamond notes that his earliest memory he can recall is of the Cocoanut Grove fire, which happened after his fifth birthday in Boston. On November 28, 1942, Cocoanut Grove (misspelled by the owner), an overcrowded Boston nightclub, saw a massive fire. The only exit became blocked, and the casualties were staggering - 492 perished directly, hundreds were injured, and the survivors were traumatized. When it came to the survivors, some “remained traumatized for the rest of their lives. A few committed suicide. But most of them, after an intensely painful several weeks during which they could not accept their loss, began a slow process of grieving … discovering that not everything in their world was ruined” (4). The reason the Cocoanut Grove fire was an upheaval in Boston was because it shook many people’s opinions of a just world, drastically changing their opinions on how the world functions. Diamond moves from the Cocoanut Grove fire to define what a crisis is. He mentions that “crisis” comes from the Greek noun “krisis” and the verb “krino,” which mean: “to separate,” “to decide,” “to draw a distinction,” and “turning point” (7). As the Greek words suggest, a crisis may vary in intensity, but they do share something in common: they drastically change the thing they are affecting. Diamond does acknowledge that crises may vary greatly, as some people believe in a single “moment-of-truth” moment, while others view a whole series of events in a relatively long period of time as the crisis. Diamond ends the prologue with the reason for studying the past: “If people, or even just their leaders, choose to reflect on past crises, then an understanding of the past might help us to resolve our present and future crises” (23).
In part 1, “Personal Crises,” Diamond discusses another personal upheaval to serve as an example. He states how, at the age of 21, he had graduated from Harvard and went to Cambridge to earn his PhD. However, “Graduate study in England soon proved far more difficult for me than had been my Roxbury Latin and Harvard courses,” as the man he was studying with, “a great physiologist about to study electricity generation in electric eels,” felt disappointed in him, as he “was useless to him as a research collaborator” (28). Diamond, severely shook in his academic confidence, began to think that he should quit science and pursue something else. When he talked with his parents about the issue, his father said that it was true he was struggling, but it was only his first year of graduate school, and that he should give Cambridge another chance before quitting. Diamond, thankfully, went back to Cambridge, got his PhD, and became, among many things, a very successful physiologist. He later discusses that crisis therapists have stated that at least a dozen factors influence whether or not a person will get through the upheaval correctly. They are: acknowledgement (that one is in crisis), acceptance of personal responsibility, building a fence (the person has to realize what they’re doing correctly and what they have to change in their behavior to adapt to the situation), help from others (friends, family, colleagues), knowledge of people who have gone through similar issues, ego strength (ego strength means that you know yourself, your purpose, self-acceptance, and self-confidence - you don’t rely on people’s opinions for a sense of stability or survival), honest self-appraisal (self-honesty, one should not deceive themselves), experience of previous crises, patience, flexibility, core values (linked to ego strength, which can be changed by a crisis), and freedom from constraints. Diamond then progresses to discuss the factors which determine the outcomes of national crisis, and they are: national consensus that a nation is in crisis (if most people don’t believe a nation isn’t in an upheaval, effective action will be majorly postponed), acceptance of national responsibility, building a fence for the national situation, getting aid from other nations, using history to serve as a model for future action, a strong sense of national identity, national self-appraisal, the experience of previous crises, dealings with national failure, flexibility, core values of that nation, and freedom from geopolitical constraints. As can be noted, the factors related to crises for nations are virtually identical to those for individuals, save that it is on a much larger scale.
In part 2, “Nations: Crises That Unfolded,” Diamond discusses six instances of nations and their various experiences with upheavals. He begins with Finland’s war with the Soviet Union. In the past, Finland, with only a population of 6 million, was able to fend off the Soviet Union by itself. Diamond begins by discussing the casualties, as Finland lost 100,000 people to the Soviet Union, the majority of them being men. Though 100,000 deaths is not as large as the deaths of other nations during WWII, like China and Russia (both nations suffered more than 20 million deaths, with Russia suffering the greatest loss of life), Finland’s population is much smaller than those two nations. To be specific, the deaths of 100,000 Finns “represented 2.5% of Finland’s then-total population of 3,700,000 and 5% of its males” (61). In terms of America, that would mean 9,000,000 American deaths in a war, which is “almost 10 times the total number of American deaths in all the wars of our 240-year history” (61). Diamond then discusses the Finnish national identity, as they are proud of their culture, especially their language, which is so complicated there are few who speak it outside of Finland. Finland first grew apprehensive of the Soviet Union since its foundation, as the two countries believed in drastically opposite things - “Finland a liberal capitalist democracy, the Soviet Union a repressive communist dictatorship” (67). As WWII approached, Finland was desperate to maintain national sovereignty, so it tried to established neutrality with Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union, as it couldn’t fight a massive war with either. Finland made some concessions with the Soviet Union after the German-Soviet Non-aggression Pact, but the Soviets were still displeased, as not all their goals were met. The Finns refused to concede any more, as they were correctly afraid that Stalin would make even larger demands until he would completely incorporate Finland into the Soviet Union. Furthermore, “Finns’ second reason for not compromising was their miscalculation that Stalin was only bluffing and would settle for less,” while “Stalin also … thought that the Finns, too, were only bluffing,” as he could not “imagine that a tiny country would be so crazy as to fight against a country with a population almost 50 times larger” (70). Finland also depended on foreign aid. The Soviet Union attacked Finland on November 30, 1939, with Stalin predicting a swift victory. The entire world, too, believed Finland would be conquered, as Poland, with 10 times the population of Finland, was conquered by the German army, which was only half the size of the Soviet one. However, contrary to most expectations, Finland was able to stave off the Russian attack and maintain independence. While the Russians did indeed have modern weaponry, they didn't understand the terrain, and they invaded during the winter, which led to movement being extremely sluggish. Furthermore, the Finns knew their terrain extremely well and utilized the snow for movement, and were motivated to preserve national independence to protect their families. Finnish soldiers would use “Molotov cocktails” to damage Soviet tanks, and they would also do actions like “jamming a lack into the tank’s tracks to bring it to a stop” before “anti-tank” crews, with a casualty rate up to 70%, would shoot the soldiers inside (72). In March 1940, Stalin didn't order more soldiers to enter Finland, because the danger of Nazi Germany was becoming apparent, and the war made the Soviet Union look weak - for every Finn dead, there were eight Soviets. After WWII, Finland made a few concessions to satisfy the Soviet appetite for land - a $226,000,000 reparation, for example - and also intentionally curtailed some liberties, like the freedom of speech, to appease the Soviets. They also flattered Soviet leaders and made it apparent they would not cause trouble, which led to Stalin saying, as noted on page 86, “‘When I have Paasikivi [president of Finland], why would I need the Finnish Communist Party?” For the rest of the Soviet Union’s existence, Finland tried to appease both the West and the Soviet Union, which it did with relative success.
Diamond soon discusses Meiji Japan and its rapid industrialization. To briefly summarize, Japan pursued a system of intense isolation for centuries, and when Matthew Perry arrived to Japan with his fleet, the leaders recognized that resistance was futile, as they had heard from China’s Opium Wars. Consequently, they dismissed the shogun and consolidated power under the Emperor to create national unity, before successfully incorporating many new technologies and information into their empire. Meiji Japan transformed itself from an agricultural country into a fully industrialized superpower which then became imperialistic. Japan, from its individual viewpoint, has used the upheaval to its advantage, for it did not become a colony, and it did not fall behind in technology to the modern day.
The next country Diamond discusses is Chile, and how a moment of upheaval occurred when it transitioned from a democracy to an authoritarian government in a successful military coup led by Augusto Pinochet. One of the many reasons the upheaval occurred was because of extremist politics, with both sides refusing to concede gains. On one hand, there was a minority of wealthy people, but most of the population were either struggling with money or were living in utter poverty. This led to all three political sides - left, right, moderates - to become extremely exasperated. Salvador Allende became president of Chile, and he was “a quintessential Chilean professional, from an upper-middle-class family, rich, intelligent, idealistic, a good speaker, and endowed with an appealing personality” (147). He was also extremely left-wing, as he was a founder of Chile’s Socialist Party and a Marxist. Unfortunately, when the economy took a turn for the worse, Pinochet, a previously unknown general, led a successful military coup, backed by the CIA (which loathed the idea of Chile turning into a communist state, like Cuba), which led to the suicide of Allende. When Pinochet assumed power, the oligarchs, centrists, and some members of the middle-class were relieved, as “Chile’s economic chaos, foolish governmental economic policies, and street violence … had become intolerable” (154). However, the moment Pinochet took power, he ordered mass arrests of leftists “with the goal of literally exterminating the Chilean left-wing. Within the first 10 days, thousands of Chilean leftists were taken to two sports stadiums in Santiago, interrogated, tortured, and killed” (156). To be specific, Jara, a popular left-wing singer, had all his fingers amputated and was shot 44 times, then thrown into a ditch. Five weeks after his ascension, Pinochet ordered a general to go around with the “Caravan of Death,” with the sole goal of murdering political dissidents. Then, falling even further into totalitarianism, “The junta banned all political activities, closed Congress, and took over universities” (156). Two months after the coup, Pinochet founded a secret police force which was so brutal in their use of sexual abuse (for instance, they would interrogate people by arresting their family and sexually abusing them in front of them) that their methods are “too revolting to describe in print” (157). The secret police was also skillful in making prisoners “disappear,” and also “set up networks of secret detention camps, devised new methods of torture” (156). Pinochet also ordered the DINA to murder many Chileans who went abroad, including one who went to America. By 1976, Pinochet’s totalitarian regime had “arrested 130,000 Chileans, or 1% of Chile’s population,” as well as killing and disappearing thousands (157). Pinochet continued to hold on to power for many years until he allowed a national election, which showed that the majority didn't want him in power. Pinochet remained in Chile as a high military official, lived a long life, and was eventually put on trial for the mass killings and tortures perpetrated by him directly during hils rule, but he died before a verdict was reached. Chile has a chilling warning for all governments, including America, for if one of the most democratic countries in Latin America could become a full-fledged dictatorship with no qualms for mass murder, then it is not unfeasible for other governments to do the same. It should also be remembered that what happened at Chile occurred to a large part due to political polarization and a lack of compromise, which emphasizes the importance of cooperation - regardless of one’s political party, we are all Homo Sapiens, and should treat each other with decency. Another thing to learn from Chile is that when it came to the national election, 42% of Chileans wanted Pinochet to remain in power, despite his sickening atrocities. Even today, many people in Chile excuse his actions on the grounds that he improved the economy. When Diamond interviewed two couples, two of the participants basically said to him that, “‘Pinochet’s torturings and killings were evil, but you have to understand that his policies benefited Chile economically’” (171).
Indonesia, after WWII, was ruled by a military dictator, Suharto. After a failed communist coup in 1965 which involved the deaths of seven major generals, a purge on alleged communists and sympathizers was initiated, which led to the executions of 500,000 people. All talk of the atrocity was quickly repressed, but eventually Suharto himself was overthrown in May 1998, for after Indonesia became relatively industrialized, it refused to tolerate his political incompetence and corruption. After the collapse of the regime, it became clear to Diamond that a new sense of national identity was established, as Bahasa Indonesia, an “easily learned and wonderfully supple language,” became the norm, and people didn't need “misleading accounts of a ‘communist coup’” to force them to cooperate (214-215). Next, Diamond discusses Germany and its reconstruction after WWII. When Germany surrendered on May 7-8th, 1945, it was in complete shambles - Germany’s armies had been crushed, 7 million Germans have been killed in the entire war, the Soviets were getting their vengeance for German atrocities (including the mass rape of millions of women), its previous leaders had all committed suicide (or were about to), tens of millions of Germans had been physically and psychologically scarred by Allied bombing, most of Germany’s cities were reduced to rubble, and 25-50% of the houses in Germany’s cities were leveled. Furthermore, Germany after the war was divided into four occupation zones for the sole purpose of preventing them from becoming a military aggressor again, which proved a geographic upheaval. Adding to the problem was that 10 million Germans were homeless, and the German economy collapsed not long after its surrender. Diamond describes how Germany recovered from its traumatic and authoritarian past, as it is “a liberal democracy … economy is the fourth largest in the world and is one of the world’s leading export economies … is the most powerful country in Europe west of Russia … played a leading role in establishing a common European currency (the euro), and in establishing the European Union that now joins it peacefully with the countries that it had so recently attacked” (218-219). Of course, the steps Germany had to take to reconstruct itself were exceedingly difficult, as East Germany remained under the Iron Curtain for decades, and the process of dealing with the past involved debasing Nazi ideology, which had been held by many during Hitler’s reign. Diamond points out that 1968 was a key year for Germany, as in that year there was a student revolt, which involved students who wanted to replace capitalism. Although they failed, many of their ideas were “adopted by mainstream German society,” which clearly demonstrated that Germany’s previous authoritarian nature had been largely shed (235). Furthermore, the chancellor of West Germany, Willy Brandt, when visiting Poland Warsaw Ghetto in 1970, collapsed on his knees to acknowledge Germany’s war crimes, and asked the Poles for their sincere forgiveness. That epitomized Germany’s acceptance of the past, which enabled it to move into the future unfettered. Diamond took time to note Germany’s varying responses to two world wars - while WWI was very devastating for Germany, hence the “Lost Generation,” the Germans viewed themselves at that time as being largely victimized by other nations, and not as being partially responsible for their predicament. Compare that to the process of habilitation after WWII and Willy Brandt’s request for forgiveness, and it becomes clear why Germany became a great democracy after its second traumatic defeat, and not a fascist dictatorship.
After discussing Germany, Diamond moves on to Australia. Diamond describes that Australia was used in the beginning to dump criminals, and a large part of the current population were the descendants of the original settlers. Australia, unlike many other of Britain’s colonies, was quite willing to be a colony of Britain, and it was extremely racist for many years, as seen in Melbourne Age, a newspaper, in 1986: “‘We wish to see Australia the home of a great homogenous Caucasian race, entirely free from the problems which have plunged the United States into civil war … there is no use in protecting our workers from the pauper labor of the Far East if we admit the paupers themselves’” (267). Diamond then discusses more about their British identity, as seen when he notes that “Until things began to change after World War Two, Australians’ sense of identity centered on their being British subjects” (269). During WWII, Australia viewed Britain as its protector against the Axis Powers (most notably, Japan), and felt betrayed after the devastating defeat of February 15, 1942, in which a British general who was fighting at Singapore surrendered to the Japanese, “sending 100,000 British and Empire troops into prisoner-of-war camps,” which also included 2,000 Australian soldiers (274). After this defeat, Australia learned two things: “First and foremost, Britain had been powerless to defend Australia” and “while Australia troops served in both wars in the remote European theater, there were grave immediate risks to Australia nearby, from Asia” (275). This largely caused Australia to no longer neglect its own self-defence, so it took actions into its own hands after WWII - Australia no longer viewed themselves as being white or as British subjects. For example, in 1968 Australia “ended the right of final appeal to Britain’s Privy Council, thereby abolishing the last real trace of British sovereignty and making Australia fully independent at last” (285). This was seen especially well when Australia finally began seeing Britain as a foreign country, and began adopting traditions from many other European countries, as seen in their food and culture. But it is still important to remember that Australia is still somewhat attached to Britain, as in 1999 a referendum on whether or not Australia should become a republic and abandon the Queen of Britain as its leader was defeated 55% to 45%. Regardless, it shows how Australia reacted to its own upheaval - it began thinking and acting in its own self-interest.
In Part 3 of Upheaval, “Nations and the World: Crises Underway,” Jared Diamond discusses upheavals in the present and those that may occur in the future. He begins with Japan, discussing their economy first. While the Japanese economy is a very influential one, an issue involves the Japanese population, which is seeing a marked increase in old people and a decrease in young people. Diamond also discusses a strong division among Japanese husbands and wives, as “a Japanese husband puts in the work hours of two people outside the house and thereby sacrifices time that could be spent with his children, while his wife stays at home and sacrifices the possibility of a fulfilling career” (301). Diamond then elaborates on this, describing how Japanese women are generally paid less than men, and have a quitting rate of 70% after giving birth to their first child. There is clearly an imbalance in work and leisure, as many companies that offer good-paying jobs expect long hours and loyalty, which is difficult for Japanese women who also want to be parents. Another issue with Japan is that it doesn’t welcome immigrants, as immigrants involve only 1.9% of the population, and Japan only accepts 0.2% of refugees seeking asylum. Ironically, the only time Japan allowed mass immigration in modern history was when millions of Koreans were sent to Japan before and during WWII to work as slaves for the Japanese war effort. Diamond then discusses that “it is not widely known that 10% of the victims killed at Hiroshima by the first atomic bomb were Korean laborers working there” (310). Japan, unlike Germany, refused to accept its role in WWII, as well as the myriad of atrocities they have committed in China, Korea, Australia, Singapore, the Philippines, and on POWs, from Unit 731 to the Manila Massacre to the Rape of Nanking. Japan’s neglect of its past has real-life ramifications, as “hatred of Japan is widespread today in China and Korea” (313). Diamond says that this is likely to cause future problems, as cooperation between nations is a key staple of globalization. A major problem involving the natural world which Japan faces is the surrounding ocean - species like tuna are being massively overfished, threatening their existence in the long run. Diamond says that “To an outsider like myself, who admires Japan, its opposition to sustainable overseas resource use is sad and self-destructive,” especially noting that Japan mainly relies on other nations to provide it with food (319).
Diamond then moves on to America, acknowledging that the US is the world’s richest and most powerful country, and has the third-highest population (330 million at the time of publication of the book) for a nation. Diamond also says that the US is very lucky in a geographic sense - 48 of the US’s states enjoy temperate temperature, and the surrounding oceans have prevented WWI and WWII from being fought on American soil, as well as serving as a deterrent. America then discusses America’s weaknesses as a democracy, including the fact that cynicism involving the American political system (which is well-founded) has led to low voter turnout, as well as a general negative attitude. However, Diamond says that a democracy is much more preferable than a dictatorship, for even though stupid, incompetent, and greedy leaders can be elected by democracy, dictatorships tend to be much worse, as those leaders can’t be voted out when things go awry: “Those self-destructive policies [pursued by dictatorships] included China precipitating the large-scale famine of 1958-1962 that killed tens of millions of people, suspending its system of education, sending its teachers out into the fields to work alongside peasants, and creating later the world’s worst air pollution. If air pollution in the US became even half as bad as it now often is in many large Chinese cities, American voters would complain and throw out the government then in power at the next election” (334-5). Diamond then discusses another advantage of democracy - citizens can feel like they’re important, and even if their ideas aren’t enacted, they can still hope for the future.
Diamond then discusses one of America’s biggest issues - political polarization. For the last two decades, Diamond describes, people have increasingly defined themselves according to which political party they belong to, which has led to a breakdown in cooperation and negotiation. Diamond attributes this polarizing trend to the internet - technology, which can be a fantastic boon, has led to people not talking with people of the opposite opinion and seeing that they are reasonable Homo Sapiens. Instead, ever-increasing amounts of people rely on biased websites for their opinions, and since many search engines tend to show articles which the recipient likes, people may feel that their position is obviously correct, and those who disagree are simply misinformed. Consequently, a potential solution to this crisis is to encourage a culture of tolerance and real communication, as once we realize our shared humanity, we will be less inclined to view the other side with contempt. Another massive issue with America is income inequality, for it has gotten worse over the years, and has led to bitterness: “American governments at all levels are increasingly influenced by rich people, with the result that governments pass laws … favoring rich people, making it increasingly likely that candidates favored by rich people will win the next elections and pass more laws favoring rich people … etc” (367). Diamond also hilariously reveals the American belief in the “self-made-man,” “the rugged individualist,” and the man who went from “rags to riches” to be untrue, for “The rags-to-riches path is less feasible in the US than in other major democracies” (367). This is seen especially well with the plight of the poor, as the US, over long periods of time, is shown to be less likely to invest in public purposes, like: “education, infrastructure, and non-military research and development,” and many government investments are being condemned as “socialism” (372). A statistic which Diamond offers is that state funding of higher education is growing at 4% of the rate of state funding for prisons, and now “a dozen US states now spend more on their prison systems than they do on their systems of higher education” (373). This lack of investment in education is seen in America’s proficiency in STEM-related subjects, which is poor compared to other democracies. If America’s economic folly is to be captured, it is to be in the following conversation, detailed by Diamond on page 379: “Question: When will the US take its problems seriously? Answer: When powerful rich Americans begin to feel physically unsafe.”
After talking about Japan and America, Diamond focuses on the world. He discusses how nuclear weapons could wipe out humanity due to “nuclear winter” (the ashes of the explosion will cover the sky and prevent crops from growing - this is what killed many of the dinosaurs), climate change will make extreme weather more common and threaten humanity’s stability (as well as driving numerous other species to extinction), and natural resources will be used up as the population of Homo Sapiens continues to increase. Diamond ends section 3 by stating that humans are missing many factors which enable it to go through an upheaval, such as having another planet’s civilizations to support us (factor 4), having societies which can offer us guidance (factor 5), a complete lack of a shared identity as Homo Sapiens (factor 6), a lack of shared core values (factor 11), a lack of past experience of ecological and nuclear challenges (factor 8), a lack of ideas to solve them (factor 9), a lack of worldwide acknowledgement of the ecological crisis (factor 1), a lack of worldwide acceptance of responsibility (factor 2), no worldwide self-appraisal (factor 7), and there are constraints on freedom of choice (factor 12). Diamond accurately states that while “those cruel realities make many people feel pessimistic or hopeless about humanity’s prospects for a decent future,” humanity has made much progress when it comes to dealing with these issues, as nations have become much more cooperative. Diamond ends the section by stating that in a few decades, humanity’s course will be made obvious, as problems like “world population and world consumption” have increased in magnitude, as well as “World recognition of our problems, and world efforts to solve them” (422).
Personal thoughts:
Upheaval is a fantastic, accessible book that is so because of its scope - it focuses on a wide range of nations and their respective crises, which also differ in nature. Upheaval, like Guns, Germs, and Steel, is also well-organized, as seen in the various parts of the book which focus on certain elements of history’s upheavals. Diamond’s commentary throughout the book is welcoming, as he gives his own input for certain nations and historical events, which gives life to this book, preventing it from being a soporific, dry read. Upheaval should be read by anyone interested in history, globalization, and international relations.
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